Predicting Individual Survival Distributions Using ECG: A Deep Learning Approach Utilizing Features Extracted by a Learned Diagnostic Model

Weijie Sun and Sunil Vasu Kalmady and Shi-ang Qi and Nariman Sepehrvand and Abram Hindle and Russell Greiner and Padma Kaul

2023/08/23

Predicting Individual Survival Distributions Using ECG: A Deep Learning Approach Utilizing Features Extracted by a Learned Diagnostic Model

Authors

Weijie Sun and Sunil Vasu Kalmady and Shi-ang Qi and Nariman Sepehrvand and Abram Hindle and Russell Greiner and Padma Kaul

Venue

Abstract

In the field of healthcare, individual survival prediction is important for personalized treatment planning. This study presents machine learning algorithms for predicting Individual Survival Distributions (ISD) using electrocardiography (ECG) data in two different formats. The models, which predict time until death, are developed and evaluated on a large, population-based cohort from Alberta, Canada. Our results demonstrate that models trained on raw ECG waveforms significantly outperform those trained on traditional ECG measurements in several metrics, including concordance index, hinge L1 loss, margin L1 loss, and margin truncated L1 loss. Additionally, the integration of predicted probabilities from wide-range diagnostic tasks not only enhances our ISD models’ performance but also makes them significantly superior to other models across all evaluation metrics in individual survival prediction tasks. This innovative approach highlights the potential to leverage insights from diagnostic models for prognostic tasks, such as individual survival prediction. These findings could have far-reaching implications for the development of personalized treatment plans and open new avenues for future research in survival prediction using ECGs.

Bibtex

@inproceedings{sun2023AAAI-predicting,
 abstract = {In the field of healthcare, individual survival prediction is important for personalized treatment planning. This study presents machine learning algorithms for predicting Individual Survival Distributions (ISD) using electrocardiography (ECG) data in two different formats. The models, which predict time until death, are developed and evaluated on a large, population-based cohort from Alberta, Canada. Our results demonstrate that models trained on raw ECG waveforms significantly outperform those trained on traditional ECG measurements in several metrics, including concordance index, hinge L1 loss, margin L1 loss, and margin truncated L1 loss. Additionally, the integration of predicted probabilities from wide-range diagnostic tasks not only enhances our ISD models' performance but also makes them significantly superior to other models across all evaluation metrics in individual survival prediction tasks. This innovative approach highlights the potential to leverage insights from diagnostic models for prognostic tasks, such as individual survival prediction. These findings could have far-reaching implications for the development of personalized treatment plans and open new avenues for future research in survival prediction using ECGs.},
 accepted = {2023-08-23},
 author = {Weijie Sun and Sunil Vasu Kalmady and Shi-ang Qi and Nariman Sepehrvand and Abram Hindle and Russell Greiner and Padma Kaul},
 authors = {Weijie Sun and Sunil Vasu Kalmady and Shi-ang Qi and Nariman Sepehrvand and Abram Hindle and Russell Greiner and Padma Kaul},
 booktitle = { Second Symposium on Survival Prediction: Algorithms, Challenges, and Applications (SPACA) AAAI},
 code = {sun2023AAAI-predicting},
 date = {2024-01-22},
 doi = {https://doi.org/10.1609/aaaiss.v2i1.27716},
 funding = {NSERC Discovery},
 location = {Arlington, USA},
 pages = {1--6},
 rate = {},
 role = {Co-Author},
 title = {Predicting Individual Survival Distributions Using ECG: A Deep Learning Approach Utilizing Features Extracted by a Learned Diagnostic Model},
 type = {inproceedings},
 url = {http://softwareprocess.ca/pubs/sun2023AAAI-predicting.pdf},
 venue = { Second Symposium on Survival Prediction: Algorithms, Challenges, and Applications (SPACA) AAAI},
 year = {2023}
}